Scientists have developed a remarkable new method of predicting the duration of armed conflicts with a remarkable degree of accuracy. Utilizing a combination of machine learning, data mining, and statistical modeling, researchers from the University of California, San Diego, have developed an algorithm that can accurately predict the length of a conflict with an 82% accuracy rate. This algorithm is based on both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of a conflict, such as duration, geographical location, and the number of casualties. The algorithm, called the Conflict Duration Estimator (CDE), has been tested on data from over 500 conflicts since 1945 and has been shown to be accurate in predicting the duration of conflicts, both short and long-term. This method could prove to be invaluable in helping to reduce the devastating effects of armed conflicts around the world.

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source: Phys.org